Daily Covid-19 Stats Nº 16

Coronavirus spreadsheet: regis­tered Cases and Deaths in Germany and Berlin today

End of Day Summary (16). The number of regis­tered cases in Germany has increased today by 4,332, with a growth rate iden­tical to that of the last 2 days (×1.5 per 3 days). The number of deaths is incre­asing faster than the number of cases, with a growth rate of ×1.7 per 2 days. In Berlin we recorded the 4 deaths, which means that the reality corre­sponds exactly with the projection.

Coronavirus Curves for Germany, predicted cases vs. confirmed cases, March 25, 2020

The curve of confirmed cases (blue) is flatter than the statis­tical predic­tion (gray) and the growth rate did not change compared to yesterday. Today’s news announced that about 1000 pati­ents are in inten­sive care in Germany. There are curr­ently 4,500 ICUs available, which means that our health system reaches its limits above 100,000 regis­tered cases … but this barrier must still be treated with caution.

Coronavirus Curves for Germany, predicted deaths vs. confirmed deaths, March 25, 2020

The number of deaths is beco­ming more dynamic. It may not double in two days, but it grows ×1.7, just like yesterday.

Author’s note: The above values are purely specu­la­tive esti­ma­tions using simple mathe­ma­tical model­ling (based on regis­tered cases/deaths) and are not confirmed by health autho­ri­ties nor any other national public authority.